In general, gambling is a mug’s game. There is a reason casinos and online gambling sites exist, and it is to make profit from poor decisions and suck-out cases. If you are making bad decisions that cost you money, you can expect to lose time and money as a result. The predictive profit loss from bad decisions is called the house edge and it exists to make the casino and website owners wealthy. It is also the reason most people lose in poker.
Blackburn recognizes all these reasons and yet he is eulogistic that poker is a speculative game. He wants you to believe that winning poker is merely a matter of luck, and not skill. To support this hypothesis, he gives the example of a coin flip:
If you were to flip a coin 10 times, the statistical probability for it to land heads up the 10th time is 50%. The same applies to flipping a coin on odds. The 50% probability is actually the probability of getting it wrong. And because heads up betting is more than just luck, the house edge is also more than just a 50% probability.
Blackburn realizes that in poker, you can increase your chances of winning, but only to a point. Once you step out of your starting range, the possibility of losing a hand is relatively high. In the short run, both steep and modest edges, minimize losses. But a long run player knows that in the event of a worst case scenario, they might actually lose.
However, there is a solution to the problem of long-term poker losses, and it comes in the form of a concept known as a bankroll reset.
A bankroll reset is a forced increase in the minimum poker bankroll, which is intended to make sure you have sufficient money to play for a long time without going bankrupt. This is actually done to make the game a fair one, because no matter how good your poker skills, the casino is sure to have a statistical edge over you. A bankroll reset ensures that if you take a hit on your bankroll, you can get up and recoup your losses before losing it all.
The purpose of a bankroll reset is to make sure you always have enough money to play through a streak of losses. There are a few ways to do this. You can increase your limit and play with a smaller stake. Make sure you increase the blinds at the same rate as the increase in your limit. Play with a higher stake and avoid the temptation to chase your loses.
For example, you are $1/$2 NLHing a $100 rebuy tournament. It is the middle of the tournament. You have $200 on the table. The tournament minimum is $5. The next rebuy is $10. You take a quick $20 break and see a great opportunity. You are waiting for your pocket to call, or to double up. However, there is a raise to $25. There was a pretty good raise. It would have to be a pretty big raise for someone to feel comfortable calling that raise. You don’t want to meet him and end up with a tough decision. You don’t necessarily want to call the $25 raise, because you want to get to the next round and not have to call a raise.
However, you do want to target that player in depo 20 bonus 30 to kecil. You want to bring him down and take the majority of his stack. You don’t want to play directly against him, because you want your hand in every situation against the remaining players. You want to isolate the player. You want to bring the play to the point where the other players are afraid of the hand the guy with the AK is bringing, and they will fold.
When you do this, the other players will have no idea whether you’re holding 2 pair or you’re holding the ace of spades. They’ll be mostly afraid of the ace and less afraid of two pair, because they don’t know what to expect. You can then reveal the strength of your hand with a continuation bet on the flop when you hit the ace or a flop like 9T. Most often you’ll win the pot when you hit the ace, because your opponents won’t have many cards to pick up.
The point of this continuation bet is to make your opponents have a hard time calling your raises. This is especially important in a tournament, where players have to get to the final table. In a cash game, you can always put the other player on a hand, and most players will let you bet the flop as if you’re really strong. This is also the first tip in tournament poker. The other players, who are scared of losing a pot, will fold.